This insight was synthesized by AI from public community discussions. We do not display original user posts or comments verbatim—all content has been rewritten and aggregated. Verify before acting on it.
Prediction Market Arbitrage Scanner API
An API service that continuously scans Kalshi and Polymarket for pricing discrepancies on identical settlement markets, enabling traders to execute risk-free arbitrage strategies. It filters for true rule matches and alerts users to opportunities.
Why this matters
You are a quantitative trader looking for edge in prediction markets but struggle to find true arbitrage opportunities because filtering identical settlement rules across venues is manual and error-prone. You need a real-time scanner that surfaces genuine pricing discrepancies and alerts you before the window closes, while accounting for the execution risk of filling both legs.
- · Built for Quantitative traders and developers building automated prediction market strategies.
- · Most likely monetization: API subscription.
The Pain · Narrative
You are a quantitative trader looking for edge in prediction markets but struggle to find true arbitrage opportunities because filtering identical settlement rules across venues is manual and error-prone. You need a real-time scanner that surfaces genuine pricing discrepancies and alerts you before the window closes, while accounting for the execution risk of filling both legs.
Score Breakdown
Market Signal
Go-to-Market
Developers and quant traders building automated prediction market bots
~2,000-5,000 technically skilled traders
Hacker News launch and r/algotrading organic posts
$49/month for API access
15 API subscribers within 30 days of launch
MVP Scope · 1–2 weeks
- Build market metadata scrapers for both venues to collect settlement rules
- Develop a matching algorithm to identify truly identical markets
- Create a real-time price comparison engine that calculates spreads after fees
- Set up a basic REST API endpoint to query current arbitrage opportunities
- Implement basic rate limiting and API key authentication
- Add WebSocket alerting for real-time arbitrage opportunity notifications
- Build an execution risk scorer based on order book depth and liquidity
- Create a historical database to track how long arbitrage windows typically last
- Develop a simple dashboard for users to view and filter opportunities
- Launch on developer communities and gather feedback from beta testers
Differentiation
Why This Might Fail
Self-rebuttal — the most important trust signal
- 1Arbitrage windows in prediction markets may be too brief and too thin for traders to execute profitably after fees and latency.
- 2The user base of technically capable quant traders in prediction markets is extremely small, limiting revenue potential.
- 3Venues may actively oppose cross-platform arbitrage and implement throttling or bans on accounts that engage in it.
Evidence Summary
How AI synthesized this insight — no verbatim quotes
One commenter referenced a previous arbitrage scan but noted that filtering for identical settlement rules was a key fix. The discussion around execution risk and thin books suggests that arbitrage is challenging to execute manually. This indicates a niche but real need for automated scanning among technical traders.
Action Plan
Validate this opportunity before writing code
Recommended Next Step
Validate
Promising signals, but needs confirmation. Create a landing page, collect email sign-ups, then decide.
Landing Page Copy Kit
Ready-to-paste copy based on real Reddit community language — no editing required
Headline
Prediction Market Arbitrage Scanner API
Sub-headline
An API service that continuously scans Kalshi and Polymarket for pricing discrepancies on identical settlement markets, enabling traders to execute risk-free arbitrage strategies. It filters for true rule matches and alerts users to opportunities.
Who It's For
For Quantitative traders and developers building automated prediction market strategies
Feature List
✓ Real-time arbitrage opportunity detection ✓ Settlement-rule parsing and matching engine ✓ REST API with WebSocket alerts ✓ Historical arbitrage spread database ✓ Execution risk scoring for flagged opportunities
Where to Validate
Share your landing page in r/r/algotrading — that's exactly where these pain points were discovered.
Sign up to unlock full deep analysis
GTM, MVP scope, why-it-might-fail, ActionPlan Copy Kit. Free signup grants 10 detail views/month.
Other opportunities in the same theme
Auto-clustered by AI from related discussions